The City of Saskatoon is continuing to move forward on plans for the proposed arena district and there is a real risk it is going to cost you a lot of money.

But that’s not what city hall wants you to think.

According to the city, the proposed downtown arena and entertainment district will provide nothing but benefits to city taxpayers.

In its initial report on the economic impacts, the city claims that the construction of a new arena/district will contribute up to $161 million to local GDP and create up to 1,200 jobs.

But looking closer, the city’s math is not what it seems.

Others have been down this road before us and the case for these types of projects isn’t as clear cut as the city would like you to believe.

For years, economists have been looking at what happens when governments cough up taxpayer money for stadiums. They have consistently found that there is no substantive evidence of positive economic impacts, whether it be jobs, income, or tax revenues associated with such projects.

In Baltimore, taxpayers helped fund the $225 million Oriole Park at Camden Yards. A stadium that is home to a Major League Baseball team. Despite this, a study found only $3 million in annual economic benefits to the area.

Are you worried yet?

Four years ago, the city’s estimate for the project was up to $178 million for a new arena and up to $88 million for a convention center. That already exceeds the projected local benefits of the project.

Saskatoon is already committed to $67.3 million of spending on land and parking lots without pouring one slab of concrete for the new arena.

Mosaic Stadium in Regina came with a total price tag of $278 million and taxpayers are still paying for it. Every time you go to a Rider game, you have to pay a $12 fee on top of the ticket that goes to paying the debt. Property taxes were also increased specifically to pay for stadium operations. It is estimated that taxpayers have paid hundreds of dollars towards the project even if they have never set one foot inside the stadium.

So, who is on the hook in Saskatoon?

In the main backgrounder for the project the city says it wants to “seek approaches that minimize the reliance on property taxes to pay for an arena.” Sounds like a good deal, until learning the city has been exploring new taxes it could raise instead.

The funding and financing report highlights that several cities in the United States are able to introduce local sales taxes to pay for sports stadiums and other facilities.

In Canada, the report looks to Winnipeg, which has a five per cent tax on hotel rooms. In Ontario, some cities have implemented a tax on hotels and Airbnbs.

Another suggestion mentioned is the bureaucratically named Tax Increment Financing, or TIF.

TIF is essentially a subsidy given to an area for development. Once that project is done, new tax revenue from that area is supposed to be diverted to paying back that subsidy, with little or no net costs. Or at least that’s the idea.

With taxpayer funded stadium projects producing very little new economic benefits, it is a good bet that taxpayers would be on the hook for any of that money that can’t be paid back.

This is eerily similar to what happened in Winnipeg with the Bombers’ IG Field debacle. Governments gave loans to the stadium owners. The loans were supposed to be paid back after they gained the resulting revenues of the investment. This proved to be wishful thinking and the province ended up writing off $200 million on the backs of taxpayers.

The bill for the Saskatoon project will no doubt be a large one. The city talks a good game on minimizing the impact to property tax. But that shouldn’t mean raising new taxes or using more debt to cover the gap.