FACT CHECK: Freeland won’t balance the budget according to PBO data
OTTAWA, ON: The federal government will not balance the budget in 2027-28, according to revenue and interest projections published recently by the Parliamentary Budget Officer.
The federal government’s fiscal update projects a balanced budget in 2027-28 due to an extra $129.1 billion in revenue since the beginning of this fiscal year.
The PBO published its Economic and Fiscal Outlook on Oct. 13. The PBO projects 2027-28 revenue to be $11.1 billion lower than the fiscal update’s projections. The PBO also projects interest charges to be $2.8 billion higher in 2027-28.
Instead of balancing the budget in 2027-28, the federal government would run a $9.4-billion deficit using the PBO’s revenue and interest charge projections. This is a larger deficit than the fiscal update’s downside scenario, which projected an $8.3-billion deficit in 2027-28.
Budgetary balance 2027-28, Fiscal update vs. PBO* ($ billions)
|
Deficit projections fiscal update |
Deficit with PBO projections* |
|
|
Program spending |
$491.9 |
$491.9 |
|
Interest charges |
$44.8 |
$47.6* |
|
Actuarial losses |
$1.2 |
$1.2 |
|
Total spending |
$537.9 |
$540.7 |
|
Revenue |
$542.4 |
$531.3* |
|
Budgetary balance |
$4.5 |
-$9.4 |
* PBO projections
Revenue comparison ($ billions)
|
2027-28 Revenue PBO |
$531.3 |
|
2027-28 Revenue fiscal update |
$542.4 |
|
Difference (PBO – fiscal update) |
-$11.1 |
Interest charge comparison ($ billions)
|
2027-28 Interest charges PBO |
$47.6 |
|
2027-28 Interest charges fiscal update |
$44.8 |
|
Difference (PBO – fiscal update) |
$2.8 |
The PBO’s revenue and interest charge projections can be found here.
The fiscal update’s projections can be found here.