This column was originally printed in the Regina Leader-Post and Saskatoon StarPhoenix.
Elections often feel like auction sales. Votes are up for grabs. Politicians are frantically bidding on every ballot. Then, after all of the promises are added up, the bill goes back to the taxpayers.
But that’s not how things work in Saskatchewan. Not this time. Not in this election. This campaign is an auctioneer’s nightmare. Both the NDP and Saskatchewan Party clearly know Saskatchewanians want them to keep a lid on spending.
Let’s start with the Saskatchewan Party. Brad Wall’s platform promises would increase spending by $105 million over the next four years. That’s about 0.7 per cent of government spending. But here’s the secret: there is nothing new about any of these spending promises. The Sask. Party’s platform projections are exactly the same as the Ministry of Finance’s budget projections. That means all this “new” spending is already priced into the province’s financial plans and the election promises wouldn’t put any additional pressure on the bottom line.
The Sask. Party’s big health announcement is a good example. Election announcements about healthcare often come with huge price tags. Not this time. The Sask. Party promises to cut $7.5 million from healthcare administration and use the money to hire nurses and long-term care aides. So the Sask. Party is promising more healthcare services without putting more pressure on taxpayers.
The NDP clearly agrees the Saskatchewan budget is already big enough; Cam Broten’s team wants to trim projected spending by $57 million next year. Yes, the NDP platform includes numerous big money spending promises, but it also includes big spending cuts. For example, the NDP says it can save $244 million over four years by slashing the number of consultants working on government contracts. On the downside, the NDP plans to outspend Sask. Party projections by $89 million by the time the 2020 election comes around.
Critics will say some of the NDP’s cuts are unrealistic, but there are simple common sense ideas as well. The NDP says it would shrink the size of cabinet by three ministers and trim political executive council staff by 15 per cent. This is definitely doable. Yes, managing the ministry of health is a tough job, but while the minister is at it anyway, it would probably be okay to add the ministry of rural and remote health to the portfolio. And perhaps the minister of education could also handle advanced education. Shrinking government right at the top would save taxpayers $6.9 million over four years, according to the NDP.
What’s behind this consensus for fiscal restraint? Part of it is cultural. The Sask. Party still has anti-deficit Reformers in its ranks and old CCF/NDP stalwarts in this province are wary of Bob Rae-style spending sprees. But, in this case, the main motivator is in the numbers.
This year Saskatchewan will run an operational deficit of $427 million. It’s borrowing another $700 million for infrastructure. That means taxpayer supported debt will grow by more than a billion dollars in just one year. Any big spending promises would make a bad situation worse.
The 2011 Sask. Party platform included a vision for a debt-free Saskatchewan. There’s no such vision in this platform. If oil prices rise above $75 per barrel, the Sask. Party promises to put the windfall into a rainy day fund and, when it’s full, start paying down debt. There’s more hope than plan in that promise.
The NDP platform projects a smaller deficit next year, but it doesn’t include any kind of debt repayment plan.
And yet, we must repay this debt.
In the meantime, the first step to getting out of debt is keeping spending from going up. Both parties obviously agree on this point. After the election is over, we will need them to work together to build on that consensus and trim spending further to get the debt going back down.
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