Imagine five years from now you need some kind of health care procedure or service.

Perhaps it’s a visit to a walk-in clinic or something more serious such as a hip replacement. Now imagine the waiting list is a lot longer than it is now. Perhaps you have to wait for ten agonizing hours in a clinic instead of six, or for three years on a waiting list for an operation instead of two.

How could this happen? Two words: poor planning.

Although health care is routinely ranked as a service that Canadians consider a top priority, a new report by the Canadian Taxpayers Federation shows many governments just aren’t concerned about health care planning over the long-term.

From 2013 to 2038 the percentage of seniors in our country will grow from 15 per cent to 24 per cent. Governments have known about this challenge for decades and it’s well known the demographic shift will have a significant impact on government finances. Simply put, older people tend to require health care services more frequently, and the services tend to be more costly.

So what have governments done to prepare for this significant financial issue?

Since 2010, the federal government has been carefully analyzing how an aging population will impact its finances over the long-term (research conducted by the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer). This analysis has allowed the federal government to understand if its spending is sustainable or if adjustments need to be made.

At the provincial level, however, it’s a completely different story. We asked every provincial government in Canada for analysis they have conducted as to how our aging population will impact their finances. Simply put, if they don’t plan properly for this challenge, they’re not going to have enough money for health care (and wait times will increase) or taxpayers will face higher taxes.

Unfortunately, British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island responded without providing any serious financial analysis. It seems the dog must have eaten their homework.

It’s an incredible feat of irresponsibility if you think about it. The situation is akin to a 63-year-old who is loaded with debt and no retirement savings.

When are the aforementioned provincial governments planning on examining the issue? Do they have a plan to hire additional doctors and nurses to make sure wait times don’t surge as more people require services? If so, where will the money come from? Again, they haven’t thought that far ahead.

Fortunately, the Nova Scotia government indicated they have some data projections. The Quebec government released some research while indicating the remaining material is confidential. Manitoba also seems to be taking the situation a bit more seriously as they released some analysis (although they could do with a more robust examination of the situation; similar to what the federal government does).

One thing should be clear, every day this major financial challenge gets a little bit closer. If governments don’t plan for it properly then we’re likely looking at longer wait times, higher taxes or a combination of the two.

Colin Craig is the Interim Alberta Director for the Canadian Taxpayers Federation
This column was published by Sun Media (Calgary Sun, Edmonton Sun, Winnipeg Sun, Toronto Sun, Ottawa Sun) on September 29, 2017