It’s must have been tough to be the last person to buy a pair of bellbottoms. Imagine the frustration of finally succumbing to a strange fashion just before it becomes utterly unfashionable. It seems the premier of Manitoba is in the political equivalent of that very problem.

 

Premier Brian Pallister is the last conservative leader in the country who supports a carbon tax.

 

Until recently, Pallister could hangout with Ontario Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown at the cool kids’ carbon tax table. Then Brown got booted amid misconduct allegations. And out of the Ontario PC Party chaos one certainty emerged: the next leader will oppose a carbon tax.

 

“I will axe the carbon tax,” stated leadership candidate Doug Ford. “Just watch me.”

 

“I personally oppose a carbon tax,” stated fellow leadership candidate Christine Elliott. “I know many of you feel the same way.”

 

“The last thing we should consider is a new tax,” stated the final leadership candidate Caroline Mulroney. “As the Leader of our party I will not support a carbon tax.”

 

Pallister must be wondering what happened. He had carbon tax advocate David McLaughlin flying back and forth from Ottawa to assure him that only backward bumpkins oppose the inevitable scheme. But people who disparage Ford’s populist appeal do so at their political peril and nobody could credibly accuse accomplished and intelligent women such as Elliott and Mulroney of being backward.

 

It’s a good bet one of these candidates will be the next premier. Even in the immediate aftermath of Brown’s departure, a poll shows the Ontario PCs at 42 per cent with the Liberals at 27 per cent and the NDP at 23 per cent. Canada’s largest province is poised to join the fight against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s carbon tax.

 

And, of course, events in Ontario are only the latest evidence of a strengthening anti-carbon-tax consensus.

 

Saskatchewan’s new premier is vowing to maintain the policy of outgoing premier Brad Wall.

 

“We will not impose a carbon tax on the good people of this province,” said Premier Scott Moe in his acceptance speech.

 

Every candidate to lead the governing Saskatchewan Party supported that stand, including Gord Wyant who was a federal Liberal until he tore up his membership card because of the carbon tax.

 

Alberta’s United Conservative Party leader Jason Kenney is equally unequivocal.

 

“The NDP’s job-killing carbon tax is hurting Alberta’s economy,” stated Kenny. “It’s time to unite Alberta and eliminate carbon taxes.”

 

Like Ontario and Saskatchewan, there was consensus opposition to carbon taxes among Alberta Conservative leadership candidates. Polls in that province have Conservatives at 56 per cent and the governing NDP at 26 per cent. It’s looking like the next election will end Alberta’s carbon tax.

 

And, of course, the federal Conservatives oppose carbon taxes.

 

“The Liberal carbon tax is nothing more than a cash grab,” said Conservative leader Andrew Scheer. “I will repeal it.”

 

This leaves Pallister utterly isolated among Conservatives on the issue of carbon taxes. That’s a problem. Manitoba will be at a competitive disadvantage if its neighbours in Ontario and Saskatchewan don’t impose carbon taxes. If Conservative premiers in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario all fight Ottawa’s carbon tax, will Pallister really put Manitoba on the other side with Prime Minister Trudeau?

 

But, of course, being uncool at a future First Ministers’ meeting is the least of Pallister’s worries. He’s offside with Manitobans on carbon taxes, especially his own supporters. Insightrix Research found that 50 per cent of Manitobans oppose a carbon tax, while 31 support it and 19 per cent are unsure. Among Conservative voters, 76 per cent are opposed.

 

Happily, the PC platform included a mechanism Pallister can use to adjust his policy: a commitment to hold a referendum on proposed tax hikes. Pallister needs to respect Manitobans’ right to vote the carbon tax. When it comes to political fashions it’s important to listen to the people or you might get caught with your bellbottoms down at the ballot box.