The Alberta government is on a collision course with amassing nearly $100 billion in debt by 2023.

That’s roughly $21,000 for every man, woman and child in the province … and here you thought you only had to worry about your own mortgage and credit card debt.

Considering our province “only” had $13 billion (approximately) in debt when the Notley government took over, the government’s six-year plan is a staggeringly risky proposition. Hug your kids and grandkids – they’ll be the ones saddled with all this extra debt unless something changes.

While Premier Notley claims she’ll get Alberta’s deficit situation under control and balance the budget by 2023, taxpayers should take note that her plan is about as sound as relying on winning the lottery to fund your retirement plans.

Consider these six optimistic expectations the premier is counting on:

First, while the premier repeatedly says we need to stop depending so much on oil and gas revenues, she is counting on such revenues to increase 174 per cent between now and 2023.

Second, her budget plan also counts on Alberta’s economy growing faster than estimates by major banks and financial experts such as the Conference Board of Canada. Page 117 of her budget shows an average of forecasts from such experts and then the figure the government chose to use for its budgeting.

From 2018 to 2021, the government has chosen a higher growth estimate than the experts’ average. Why would a government want to assume a faster growing economy? It’s simple; a higher growth rate means more tax revenues – helping to pad the premier’s balanced budget claim.

The premier’s financial plan is also counting on a lower unemployment rate than what experts are predicting. More people working means more tax revenue and fewer people relying on social assistance. This rosy projection helps Premier Notley on the revenue and expenditure side of the ledger. Have you noticed a pattern yet?

The premier is also counting on more new homes to be built each year than what private sector experts expect. More new homes of course come with economic activity that leads to more tax revenues.

Premier Notley’s plan also depends on the Trans Mountain pipeline getting built. We better hope Prime Minister Trudeau has nerves of steel to stand up for the pipeline project … if it doesn’t go through, Premier Notley’s plan is out by billions of dollars.

On the expenditure side of the ledger, Premier Notley is counting on keeping spending to less than the combined rate of inflation and population growth. This feat has only been achieved once in the last four years. Going forward, she’s counting on achieving such a target every year from 2018 to 2023.

If all of those measures fall perfectly into place, the government will deliver a $700 million operating surplus in 2023. It’s a lot of money, but on a $66 billion budget, it’s a razor thin 1 per cent surplus.

Now consider an alternative – spend like British Columbia.

Next door in B.C., they have half a million more people, but they’re spending $2.6 billion less this year. If you pull your calculator and work the numbers, you’ll find that if Alberta reduced its spending down to the same per capita levels as British Columbia, we would be in a surplus position right now … and we could avoid piling on billions in additional debt.

Instead of having staff spend their days calling big banks to negotiate billions of dollars in loans, Premier Notley needs to have them call over to British Columbia and ask for advice on how to spend more cost effectively.

In the mean time, give your kids a hug.

Colin Craig is the Alberta Director for the Canadian Taxpayers Federation    
This column was published in the April 2, 2018 edition of the Calgary Herald