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Time for Selinger to listen to the money talk

Author: Todd MacKay 2015/07/16

AC/DC’s rock anthems may not be high-brow poetry, but they do make some common-sense points. Premier Greg Selinger would do well to listen to one such piece of AC/DC’s wisdom: “come on – listen to the money talk.”

Moody’s, an international bond rating agency, speaks the language of money and it recently downgraded Manitoba’s credit rating. Credit ratings from bond agencies are similar to personal credit scores. The consequences are also similar. Manitobans who fail to make the minimum credit card payments can expect higher mortgage rates. When the government consistently fails to balance the budget, the province’s credit rating takes a hit.

Moody’s recently raised the alarm about Manitoba’s “increased debt burden” and says the province will face “significant challenges in achieving fiscal balance.”

Manitoba Finance Minister Greg Dewar didn’t bother talking to reporters about Moody’s mauling of his budget, but his spokesperson did email the Sun a statement.

“We take the ratings by Moody’s and other agencies seriously,” Minister Dewar wrote. “But we need to stay focused on creating jobs by growing Manitoba’s economy — and not make short-sighted cuts.”

In other words: “Dear Moody’s. I totally know what I’m doing so whatever. Sincerely, Greg Dewar.”

How’s Minister Dewar’s master plan working out? This year Manitoba’s deficit will add $422 million to the debt. The debt is now more than $33 billion. Manitoba will spend $842 million just to cover the interest payments on the debt.

For those thunderstruck by the enormity of these numbers, consider the per capita breakdown. Each Manitoban is on the hook for more than $25,000 in debt. It’s $650 each just to cover the annual interest costs.

And those numbers are almost certainly going up.

When lenders see Manitoba’s credit rating downgraded, they see more risk, and lenders manage risk by charging higher interest rates. Manitoba will pay higher interest rates to finance its current deficit and to refinance the province’s old debts that still haven’t been paid off.

Lenders know Manitoba has absolutely no plan to fix the problem. The province says it will balance the budget by 2019, but its plan is unrealistic. Further, it’s promised to balance the budget before and it hasn’t come close, so nobody’s buying this government’s plan now.

What does this credit downgrade mean for Manitobans?

If this government’s record is any indication, Manitobans should brace for a tax hike. Premier Selinger hiked the PST without holding the legislatively-required referendum when he felt financially squeezed before. That tax hike didn’t solve the problem, but there’s no indication Premier Selinger learned his lesson.

Manitobans should also brace for higher Hydro bills. When Moody’s downgraded the province’s credit, it specifically noted that Manitoba Hydro’s credit rating will remain unchanged even though its borrowing is backed by the province. It seems the bond rating agency thinks Hydro will have the money to make payments on its massive debt.

Right now Hydro is asking for a 3.95 per cent rate increase. It’s projecting 3.95 per cent every year until 2024. During that time Manitobans will see their bills go up 42 per cent.

Higher taxes and hydro bills aren’t inevitable, however. Moody’s points out that Manitoba’s credit could be upgraded if it balances the budget ahead of schedule and proves it’s committed to paying down the debt.

We have a choice. Manitoba can keep on spending more than it has until debt payments and interest costs force deep budget cuts and steep tax hikes. Or we can make a few tough decisions now, control spending and get the province back in black.


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Franco Terrazzano
Federal Director at
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