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The perpetual downward spiral

Author: Adrienne Batra 2006/12/14
Thanks to the provincial government, misrepresentation is fast becoming Manitoba's economic sales strategy.

The good news: it has great export potential. The bad news: the more the NDP government gets away with misleading us about the true state of our economy, the more permanent the damage.

The latest example is the government's response to the annual report of the respected Canada West Foundation. The Foundation said that Manitoba's GDP growth reached 2.9 per cent in 2006, and is projected at 3.2 per cent in 2007. Finance Minister Greg Selinger claims this is an endorsement of the provincial economy.

In fact, the Foundation said just the opposite: "Yet despite the steady GDP growth, Manitoba's economy is growing at rates below the national average and at rates significantly below those posted in Saskatchewan, Alberta and BC." Sure, Alberta and British Columbia are tough competitors; but it's now official - Saskatchewan is beating us as well (with 4 per cent growth for 2006).

Mr. Selinger likes to talk about our high growth rate. The only problem is we've fallen so far behind our competition. 1 per cent of Manitoba growth isn't worth as much as 1 per cent of Saskatchewan growth anymore, because Saskatchewan's economy is now bigger than ours.

Yes, that's right. At year-end 2005, Saskatchewan's GDP was $42.9 billion, versus Manitoba's $41.7 billion. It's not a big lead, but for Manitobans in the habit of laughing at our supposedly poorer neighbors to the West, it's time to stop laughing and start taking action.

We're falling behind in income too. Citing current Statistics Canada figures, the Foundation notes that Manitoba wages grew by only 2 per cent (year-to-date) for 2006, or half Saskatchewan's rate. Manitoba's average weekly wage is almost 10 per cent less than the national average, and almost 20 per cent behind the western Canadian average.

In reply, Mr. Selinger told the media the Foundation's wage comparisons were dead wrong.

Selinger's spin: our wages grew by 7.7 per cent in 2004-2005, which he says was above average. Read carefully: the Finance Minister, our cabinet's chief numbers guy is trying to convince us that hard wage data from our national statistics agency is wrong for 2006 because we had wage growth in 2004-2005.

Sorry, Mr. Selinger, but 2004-2005 is so yesterday. The Canada West Foundation is talking about real dollar-to-dollar wage comparisons - today. And today, Manitoba's wages are lower, period.

Manitoba is falling behind because Mr. Selinger isn't doing his job. He's doing nothing meaningful to restrain government spending, reduce the tax burden and make Manitoba attractive to skilled workers or job creators. If you're an engineer or a business manager, why stay in a province that is falling behind Saskatchewan in economic potential Is the marginal advantage of cheap hydro really the best we can do

All the creative math, government spin and misrepresented facts in the world won't stop Manitoba's downward economic spiral. Saskatchewan has slowly figured that out, now it's up to us.






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