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Saskatchewan wisely puts the brakes on spending

Author: Todd MacKay 2015/12/28

There’s a lot in life we can’t control, but we can choose how to react to circumstance. The three Prairie provinces are struggling with an unpredictable economy and plunging oil prices. However, Saskatchewan’s response is very different from those of its neighbours.

Alberta just got hit with a credit rating downgrade from bond rating agency Standard and Poor’s.

Bond rating agencies provide credit ratings for governments that are similar to credit scores for individuals. When individuals take on too much debt, their credit score goes down and lenders charge higher interest rates for new loans. It’s the same for governments – those that borrow too much see their credit ratings downgraded and their interest rates go up.

Moody’s, another bond rating agency, warned Alberta that its sterling credit rating could be in jeopardy because of “the absence of a credible plan to restore fiscal balance in the next few years, rebuild reserve funds and contain debt accumulation.”

How did the Alberta government respond? It increased spending. In fact, it released an October budget that will increase its provincial debt by $6.1 billion.

Standard and Poor’s predictably downgraded Alberta’s credit rating.

“The downgrade reflects our assessment of Alberta’s now-average economic prospects resulting from low oil prices; projected weak budgetary performances in the next two years; and moderate, but rapidly rising, tax-supported debt burden,” stated Standard and Poor’s in its release.

Alberta’s NDP Finance Minister Joe Ceci reacted by saying that the downgrade will have “little or no effect on Alberta’s borrowing costs.” Albertans may question Minister Ceci’s analysis because they’re already paying $714 million just to cover the interest costs on their current provincial debt. If Alberta’s borrowing rates increase by even a fraction of a percentage point the cost to taxpayers will be measured in millions.

The situation is strikingly similar in Manitoba.

Moody’s warned Manitoba of an impending credit downgrade during the summer of 2014.

How did Manitoba respond? In 2014, Manitoba budgeted for a core deficit of $357 million. In 2015, it budgeted an even higher deficit of $422 million.

What happened next was predictable.

Moody’s downgraded Manitoba’s credit rating this summer due to an increasing debt burden and the lack of a realistic plan to balance the budget.

Manitoba’s NDP Finance Minister Greg Dewar reacted by saying: “we have a plan – our plan is working.” Apparently it’s part of Minister Dewar’s plan to force taxpayers to pay $842 million to cover Manitoba’s interest costs this year. Once again, even a fractional increase in borrowing costs will drive that number up by millions.

Saskatchewan has not been immune to the economic upheaval. Plunging oil prices have cost the provincial treasury hundreds of millions. So much so that Saskatchewan has received its own credit rating warnings.

This fall, Standard and Poor’s revised its outlook for Saskatchewan from stable to negative because “there’s a one-in-three chance that the recent decline in oil prices may erode Saskatchewan’s budgetary performance.” Oil prices have now fallen well below $40 per barrel.

Saskatchewan plans to borrow $700 million for infrastructure and is now dealing with an operational deficit of $262 million. However, Saskatchewan’s response stands in stark contrast to the reaction of its neighbours.

“By controlling government spending, we have been able to reduce the forecast deficit,” said Saskatchewan Finance Minister Kevin Doherty when he released second quarter financials.

In fact, the Saskatchewan government trimmed spending by $107 million in just a few months.

There is, of course, more to do in Saskatchewan. We’re still on course to increase the debt by nearly a billion dollars. But both Alberta and Manitoba are stepping on the gas and driving their provinces deeply into debt. Saskatchewan is wisely tapping the brakes on spending.

 


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