The thing about circling the drain is that it means there’s still time. But with every downward spiral, the decent becomes quicker and the drain becomes closer. Changes becomes increasingly necessary and urgent.

DBRS, a prominent international bond rating agency, recently released a statement regarding Manitoba’s finances. It didn’t follow Moody’s move to immediately downgrade Manitoba’s credit rating, but it raised serious warnings. And the DBRS numbers show the province is falling into debt even faster than it’s admitting.

Credit ratings from bond rating agencies are similar to personal credit scores. When a family amasses too much credit card debt, their credit score is likely to suffer and they face higher mortgage rates when their mortgage is renegotiated. The same is true for governments.

The Manitoba government says it will run a deficit of $422 million this year. The provincial debt is already more than $33 billion. The government projects that interest payments on the existing debt will be about $842 million. That’s about $650 per Manitoban just to cover the interest.

Cutting through government accounting shenanigans is a big part of a bond rating agency’s work. The Manitoba government claimed to run a deficit of $424 million last year. DBRS took a closer look at the numbers and it saw something much bigger.

When DBRS added up both capital and operational spending, it found that the Manitoba government spent $1.3 billion more than it collected in revenue.

And things aren’t looking much better this year.

The government projects a deficit of $422 million. But, when DBRS adds it all up, Manitoba’s spending is projected out outstrip revenue by $1.1 billion.

Governments like to downplay deficits by separating operational and capital spending. But that’s not how lenders look at it. All they see are interest payments today and principal payments in the future. And there are only two ways to get the money to keep creditors happy: cut spending or increase taxes.

Even the bright spots in the DBRS report are gloomy. Exports are projected to be up due to a lower dollar. And lower oil prices aren’t hitting Manitoba as hard as other provinces.

Those upsides aren’t as positive as the government thinks, however. The province anticipates GDP growth of 2.5 per cent this year. DBRS pegs projected GDP growth at 2.2 per cent. That small difference could mean millions less in government revenue.

DBRS didn’t downgrade Manitoba’s credit because it believes the debt will be manageable if the government sticks to its plan to balance the budget by 2019. That’s a big if. Last year the government projected a deficit of $357 million, but later admitted the actual number totalled $424 million. The government promised to balance the budget, but the deficit continues to rise and government’s plan to get it under control is completely unrealistic.

If the past is any indication, the government will likely downplay the concern. It will raise the spectre of layoffs to scare away any talk of change. Unfortunately, closing our eyes will not make the danger disappear.

On the other side, there will be the temptation to say the problem can be addressed with minimal pain. The reality is that tweaks will not fix the problem. There will be many difficult decisions to make over the coming years.

But don’t panic. Manitoba hasn’t gone down the drain yet. The good thing about the bad news from DBRS is that there’s still time to turn things around. The sooner we get to work the less hardship we’ll have to endure.