Long-Gun Registry Vote Scenarios

Below are a few scenarios as to how the vote on Bill C-391 could turn out. But first, the context.

The federal long-gun registry has finally begun to stare death in the face as it emerges from the Public Safety Committee. As every opposition member on the committee is staunchly supportive of the program, it is no surprise that it voted to recommend that the House not pass Candice Hoeppner's Bill C-391.

The House of Commons is a bigger fish bowl however, and swimming in it are 21 opposition members who voted for the Bill at Second Reading. Of these were 12 New Democrats, 8 Liberals and 1 independent. All Bloquists voted "nay". Opposition Leader Michael Ignatieff has now promised to whip his rebel MPs into shape despite the convention that all private members bills be free-votes and Bloc is expected to vote as it did before. This leaves NDP leader Jack Layton unwillingly holding the proverbial bullets to shoot down the long-gun registry.

Will Jack Layton whip his caucus as well? Can he succeed? Will any whipped Liberals or (potentially whipped) New Democrats simply abstain or catch the "Ottawa flu'? Regardless of what happens, here is how the vote might go down:

Scenario	Yeas	Nays
Same as 2nd Reading	164	137
Lib Abstain	156	137
Lib Oppose	156	145
Lib & NDP Abstain	144	137
Lib & NDP Oppose	144	157
Lib Oppose & NDP Abstain	144	145

According to these figures, the Bill has a living chance of passing in most scenarios with the obvious exception of all opposition parties voting together. Even if both the NDP and Liberals where whipped, some of their dissenting members would feel tremendous pressure from constituents to break party lines and vote for the Bill regardless, or at the very least not vote in opposition.

In the last noted scenario - that of all dissenting Liberals falling in line with their leader's whip and all dissenting New Democrats sitting on their hands - the bill would be defeated by a single vote. Since Second Reading however, pro-registry New Democrat Judy Wasylycia-Leis has resigned to run for the mayor's chair in Winnipeg, bringing the vote to an exact tie.

Much drama awaits the fish bowl of Ottawa!

By: Derek Fildebrandt
Posted: June 04, 2010
Topic: Federal

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Comments

Fri, 2010-06-04 12:08 — An Anonymous Taxpayer (not verified)

It's been amazing to watch

It's been amazing to watch Wayne Easter, Liberal MP for Malpeque and former Solicitor-General flip-flop on this issue. As Solicitor-General, he was responsible for implementing the program; if you wrote him to complain about the cost over-run, he'd send you a lovely little colour brochure that trumpeted the merits of the registry. In December 2009's vote, he flipped and voted against the Liberal Party line and for the abolition of C-391 stating that he didn't think it was fair to punish farmers for owning long guns (his riding is 100% rural). Now, he's flopped to the voting against C-391 like the nice little obedient Liberal he has always been. He's feeling the heat from his leader; now that the vote is whipped, I can't see him voting again outside Party lines. Unfortunately, that was a one time event.

It will be interesting to see if he flips again on third reading; I don't expect likely.

http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/

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